Migration to and from the Caucasus has a very complicated and unique history. Because the area is largely defined by mountain ranges that are difficult or impossible to pass, many groups of people have lived in isolation for decades. But there are still many streams of immigration and emigration from the three countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, as well as South Russia.
There are many reasons for these streams, but most focusing on political and economic stresses.
During the last half century, few events have changed the course of migration flows in the Caucasus region (and further) the way the dissolution of the Soviet Union did in 1991. Last half century, few events have changed the course of migration flows the way the dissolution of the Soviet Union did in 1991. Below is a map of the Soviet Union in 1920. As you can see, all of the Caucasus region is in their control.
For now, I’m going to focus on the three countries of South Caucasus, also known as Transcaucasia. These are outlined in the map above.
The South Caucasus is a region of pretty high instability with frozen conflict and constant geopolitical struggles. Each political decision influences migration streams – the volume, the character, and the direction.
Since the late 1990s, Armenia and Georgia have focused on developing their migration legislation, not only working around human rights in the context of mobility, but investing in policy. They’re learned through cooperation with external forces such as the EU, US, and Canada.
This cooperation has evolved after the Armenian and Georgian governments announced European integration as the economic and political goal of the countries. The main focuses are on border management issues, the fight against people smuggling and human trafficking, as well as on managing return and readmission.
The establishments of EU mobility partnerships as well as signing readmission and facilitation agreements have strengthened this cooperation.
In Armenia, the UN dDepartment of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) stated that 191,000 migrants live in Armenia, 6.5% of the total population.
This does not, although, take into account the nationality of the migrants. 98% of the people here are of Armenian nationality, proof that almost all migrants are Armenians who have lived outside of the country. Even the Armenian media does not provide reliable data on migration to Armenia – but enough data about migration from the country.
Up to 100,00 ethnic Armenians live in Syria, but since the start of the war there, many of them have sought refuge in Armenia. Non-Armenians that migrated here probably regret it. While the neighboring countries of Azerbaijan and Georgia have strengthened their economy each year, Armenia cannot seem to do so.
The economic crisis of the 90s here has been a major contributing factor of this shift, and around 1.2 million have left the country over the past 20 years. The situation really isn’t much different today. It’s a poor country with high unemployment rates. Agricultural, construction, and many other essential parts of the economy are in decline.
The country attracts multi-million dollar loans annually, contributing to a state debt that exceeds 6.4 billion, while the economy is not improving.
Georgia resides in a unique setting since international migration has been possibly only since the country obtained independence in 1991 (after the dissolution of the Soviet Union). The creation of these new international borders have generated new opportunities. Thus, there has been a huge shift in migration flows.
Emigration as a percentage of population increased from 13% in 1980 to 26% in 2000. This benefit the country as remittances followed, which grew more than 500% between 2004 and 2014.
Georgia took action to leverage these benefits for development opportunities. Their strategy has been to base decisions on empirical knowledge. In 2017, the OECD Development Pathways published a study titled ‘Interrelations between Public Policies, Migration and Development in Georgia’, which examined how labor market, agricultural, education, and investment and financial services are affected by dimensions of migration.
Georgian created the State Commission on Migration issues in 2010, to integrate migration more into the country’s development strategy.
The study also analyses how policies in these sectors influence migration outcomes, such as the decision to migrate, the use of remittances, and the success of return migration. Adequate data, however, is an issue ensuring that policy responses are coherent and well-informed.
Emigration can relieve underemployment, provide an incentive for skills, and boost women’s social and economic autonomy in the country of origin. Remittances can help build financial and human capital as well.
Return migration is a largely unexploited resource. With the right incentives, return migrants can invest capital in start-ups and elf employment, and have the ability to transfer skills and knowledge acquired abroad. In Georgia, evidence shows that return migrants are more likely to own a business and spend on agricultural assets.
Azerbaijan’s migration status is an exception to the general rule of the South Caucasus, as they are party to several international instruments but has not prioritized migration for a long time and has ben developing its own approach, which is codified in the migration code Diaspora.
The country began to experience movement of people on the eve of the collapse of the Soviet Union, like other countries in this region, but largely due to territorial conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh with neighboring country of Armenia.
The political chaos and economic collapse after the breakup of the USSR caused serious problems surrounding the statistical records of migration processes, which mainly arose from the State Statistical Committee (Goskomstat). Problems arose largely because many other government departments besides Goskomstat were working on the issues related to population migration statistics.
Only in recents years has this changed, especially with the creation of the State Migration Service in 2007. This mandated function to merge state control over migration processes, including statistical reports. But still more than 80% comes from the Goskomstat.
According to results analysis by the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) method, it was identified that people prefer to move to other countries due to high unemployment rates. The results of this study also show that population growth and high mortality rates increases the emigration level. These results tells me that Azerbaijan should focus on these aspects to control the international migration problem.
It’s important that I also address the issues of migration in the North Caucasus, also known as Ciscaucasia. The area is occupied by Russia and the migrant population has undergone fundamental changed. The populations from Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic states have shrunk, while inflows from Central Asia and Transcaucasia have grown – from 15% of all immigrants in the 1990s to almost 40% from 2011-2015.
This shift reflects a transition of temporary labor migrants into permanent immigrants as well as mortality among elderly immigrants from Ukraine and Belarus. Violent relations have also pushed this migration, such as the armed conflict in Chechnya, which has lasted since December of 1994 and is an act of rebellion towards the Russian Federation.
In June 2012, the President of Russia approved the State Migration Policy Concept, which set policy until 2025, and aims to make immigration policy more balanced. It develops legislation focused on various long-term and temporary migration flows.
In addition, international agreements – both bilateral and collective, have been put in place and apply to areas of migration, travel and visa issues, legal status, labor migration, citizenship concerns, readmission, and more.
Most of the concept’s goals have not been achieved. There are still no immigration programs with terms for different categories of migrants. The bulk of migrant workers come to Russia under different terms – for example, health-care workers and low-skilled seasonal workers must fulfill the same rules to work.
Today, Russia stands at a crossroads. They will need to make decisions in two key areas – how migration should be regulated, and how many migrants Russia needs.
The geopolitical setting of the North and South Caucasus is stressed by several economic and political struggles that have lead to many flows of migration in and out of the four countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and South Russia.
Credits:
http://prokarelia.net/fi/kuvat/soviet_i.jpg
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/1/132/pdf
http://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/29917/CARIM-East_SouthCaucasus_web.pdf?sequence=1
https://www.azernews.az/aggression/124359.html
The Caucasus 
