Faith groups saw a bright future for themselves on December 26th 1991, when the Soviet Union was dissolved and established independence to fifteen states. Political totalitarian rule under the union of these socialist states had lead to religious practice being forced out of public and private life. Faith leaders were sent to labor camps and sacred buildings fell.

A cultural revival in the 80s led to the establishment of constitutions that protected religious freedom, creating an environment for churches and states to exist together. Brian Grim, who worked in what is now Kazakhstan from 1989 until the mid-1990s, states that leaders recognized “the positive contribution religion could make to the building of new countries”.

This complicated history has lead to an interesting revival of religious practice in the region of Transcaucasia, which is composed of the countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.

I’ve decided to go into depth on the history of this religious revival in the country of Georgia, as the government is not hostile to religious practice but there are policies in place that favor the Georgian Orthodox Christians, making it difficult for other religions to grow.

Religion During Soviet Rule

Orthodox Christianity

The Soviet regime originally promoted atheism, however, many Georgians remained Christian as part of their cultural and family tradition. In 1943, the church became independent, strengthening a link between what is traditionally viewed as Georgian and Christianity. This brought many back to the gold old days of independent Georgia.

In the 80s, the Soviet Regime loosened their reigns on religion a bit more, allowing it to be more visible in public. This was followed by the renaissance of the Georgian Orthodox Church (GOC)- churches were reopened, and religious colleges were opened, such as the Tbilisi Spiritual Academy.

Islam

In 1943, the regime established the Spiritual Directorate of the Muslims of Transcaucasus in the capital of Azerbaijan, Baku. This was to represent all Muslims in the region, including their in Georgia, and meant that the Sunnis became a subsidiary of the sheikh of Shias.

In general, this lead to a loss of religious knowledge with the lack of institutional mediators. So the revival of Islam was much different than the Orthodox Christian renaissance because they did not have this opportunity to rebuild and nurture their religion. The two big reasons why this revival was delayed was the lack of educated Muslim clergy and the absence of a national administrative body for the Muslims.

Crumbling Republics

Towards the end of the Gorbachev period, there was a time was political turmoil and uncertainty. The GOC served as a symbol of stability. This period gave more power and trust towards the institution of the majority religion, which in turn gave them political influence.

This had an impact on minority religions, especially Islam. But a lack of religious institutions had pushed the Muslims of Georgia to live Islam only as a part of their cultural and family life, making a revival of the traditional religion nearly impossible. This caused Muslims to become more open to the influence of religious movements in other countries abroad, breaking a link between the cultural and the religious.

Post-Soviet Revival

Post-Soviet Union, there was a revival and reculturation of Orthodox Christianity as well as a deculturation of Islam. It gained momentum as the political and institutional elite were unable to establish an effective and stable political system, leading to a loss of public trust.

As a consequence, the GOC took a much more active role in society and politics. They filled a vacuum left by both political and economic unrest. The growing rule of the GOC has been emphasized by several events, such as the civil war, violent ethnic conflicts, and the political and economic crisis.

Religion in Modern Day Georgia

The GOC is now viewed as a part of the country’s cultural and social fabric, as it’s members constitute more than 80% of the population. It is also the only group that provides military chaplains and consults to the government. Other minority religious groups aren’t required to register with the government, although they would receive benefits like tax exemptions and the right to own property.

Today, minority groups such as Muslims are sometimes targets of campaigns or physical violence, especially when they are seen in opposition to the GOC. This creates a environment of tension, as the country is surrounded by Muslim states. Below is a link to the map of the current religious makeup of the region.

https://arcg.is/1OjCOv

I’ve included a video below about ethnic Georgian Hurie, produced by USAID, with a purpose of creating a more tolerant and respectful religious population of Georgia.

Credits:

Dallas, Kelsey. “The Fate of Religious Freedom in the Former USSR, 25 Years after Its Collapse.” DeseretNews.com, Deseret News, 29 Dec. 2016, http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865670047/The-fate-of-religious-freedom-in-the-former-USSR-25-years-after-its-collapse.html.

Köksal, Pınar, et al. “Religious Revival and Deprivatization in Post-Soviet Georgia: Reculturation of Orthodox Christianity and Deculturation of Islam | Politics and Religion.” Cambridge Core, Cambridge University Press, 13 Aug. 2018, http://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/politics-and-religion/article/religious-revival-and-deprivatization-in-postsoviet-georgia-reculturation-of-orthodox-christianity-and-deculturation-of-islam/3733FD242B3627BF8509F501F522E0B3.

Varshalomidze, Tamila. “Ethnic Georgian Muslims in a Christian-Dominated Nation.” Europe | Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 7 Dec. 2017, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/12/ethnic-georgian-muslims-christian-dominated-nation-171204110108701.html.

As the South Caucasus has emerged as a world player in the years following its independence from the Soviet Union, the region has actually been investing in it’s tourism sector. Travelers from all over the world can experience a unique blending of Asian and European cultures packed into beautiful natural landscape.

For those unaware of the geographical location of the South Caucasus, it’s situation in between the Black and Caspian Seas and is made up of the three countries of Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. Of the three, Georgia’s tourism sector has been growing rapidly through many foreign investments and infrastructure development.

I want to briefly discuss the natural landscape of the region, as it alone is enough to pull travelers from all over the world. Containing the South Caucasus mountain range and plenty of water all around, it presents adventurers a plethora of hikes, views, features, and varied climates. Plus, it’s beautiful.

Not only is the region beautiful, but it is rich in cultural and linguistic diversity. The region contains more than 40 ethnic groups and 50 languages, ranging from small indigenous language families to wider Indo-European families. Theres diversity in religions (Islam, Christianity, Judaism, Buddhism), geography (deserts, mountains, shoreline, glaciers), history, and culture.

Because the region is quite small, about the size of the UK, travelers are able to hit all three countries in one trip. And you’ll want to, too, because this part of the world is so incredibly diverse. Azerbaijan alone supports 9 out of the 12 climate zones. Because of the broken up landscape of the mountains, there is a rich history of ancient tribes and clans spread around the terrain.

History of Caucasian Tourism

Tourism has been a major part of the economy of each of these countries individually and as a region since the beginning , successfully marketing themselves as a destination. Before the dissolution of the Soviet Union, tourism was planned and monetized by a state-owned agency called Intourist, which arranged all the bookings and packages including lodgings and itineraries.

The collapse of the Soviet Union and the periods of unrest surrounding it led to a standstill of the tourism industry in 1991. This lead to a reorganization of the tourism infrastructure in place. Each country created individual state-owned departments in charge of tourism but in actuality, there has been little changed from the Soviet era besides the name.

The weakness of these institutions and lack of expertise does not define the current development of this sector, although, as foreign investment has gained drastically. I’ll cover a bit about the three capitals here, each with a unique culture and attractions that make this part of the world so intriguing to the adventurer.

Below is a map displaying tourism in this region as a percentage of GDP.

https://arcg.is/DDXfa

Tbilisi, Georgia

The capital city of Georgia is a beautiful city architecturally that has grown tremendously in the last few decades. To aid in the development of their tourism sector, Georgia’s government has made it easier to obtain a visa, began a road rebuilding program, privatized infrastructure and hotels, and but tax incentives in place for tour operators.

One major site is the Narikala Fortress, an ancient castle that overlooks the city of Tbilisi and the Mtkvari River. Founded in the 4th century, it consists of two walled structures between suplhur baths and a botanical garden. No one leaves the country without walking around inside the crumbling fortress. You can feel the history of the city in it’s walls.

The city’s culinary scene could be argued as one of the most underrated, with flavors from the Mediterranean and Greece as well as Persian and Turkish influences. You’ll find quite a few food tours around the city and it’s popular with tourists.

Overall, Tbilisi has much to offer to the tourist and is one of the most intriguing cities of the Southern Caucasus region.

Yerevan, Armenia

I want to mention here that the whole region, although technically part of Asia, feels much more European in style and culture. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the three countries tried to distance themselves from Russian rule and establish themselves with more Western influences.

Armenia’s capital city of Yerevan is no exception to this and presents a beautiful city with much tourism infrastructure in place. There is a busy culinary scene and a lively culture of contradictions – the new next to the old and teahouses next to hipster bars.

But I would say that the most compelling part of this country, what I would want to learn about the most in this city, is its rich history. The Armenian genocide of 1915 at the hands of the Turks is a defining trait of the people here.

On the Tsitsernakaberd hill south of the centre of the city , there’s a genocide museum and a national monument, where you can learn about this history.

Baku, Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan’s capital of Baku is extremely modern with a very well development tourism. It’s culture is more similar to Turkey than the other two countries and its a secular Muslim country with wealth developed from it’s oil production.

One site to mention is the Gobustan National Park, home to over 6,000 rock sites that date back to the Neolithic era some 40,000 years ago. The site also contains remains of uninhabited caves, settlements, and burials that reflect the lives of humans during the wet period that followed the last Ice Age, from the Upper Paleolithic to the Middle Ages.

Another popular tourist site is the Fire Temple of Baku. This was a place of sacrifice founded above a natural gas vent and, as a result, ignites a large flame in the middle and four smaller flames on the rooftop corners of the pavilion.  The complex was turned into a museum in 1975, and in 1998, it was nominated as an UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Overall, there is much to see at the crossroads of Europe and Asia. I’ll end with this quote I really enjoy from Lonely Planet’s description of the region –

Breathtaking natural beauty, deeply hospitable people, quaint rural backwaters and cosmopolitan capitals together make the South Caucasus region a thrilling, offbeat discovery.

lonelyplanet

Credits

“12 Things You Should Know Before Travelling to the Caucasus.” Wander-Lush, 30 Sept. 2018, wander-lush.org/travel-tips-caucasus-georgia-armenia-azerbaijan/.

“Armenia.” Dark Tourism, http://www.dark-tourism.com/index.php/armenia.

“REGIONAL STUDY ON COMMUNITY BASED TOURISM IN THE CAUCASUS.” World Bank, web.worldbank.org/archive/website00502/WEB/PDF/REGION-2.PDF.

“Travel in the Caucasus — Where East Meets West.” Wild Junket Adventure Travel Blog, 18 May 2018, http://www.wildjunket.com/travel-in-the-caucasus/.Ugc.

“Fire Temple of Baku.” Atlas Obscura, Atlas Obscura, 11 Oct. 2011, http://www.atlasobscura.com/places/fire-temple-of-baku.

It has been made clear on this blog that in recent years, powerful countries have found an interest in the South Caucasus, or the countries of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. It’s location in between the Black and Caspian Seas give the region great geopolitical value. Not only are their resources here such as crude petroleum, but the area has the potential to act as a connection between Europe and Asia.

China is not an exception to this, as they have been trying to gain global influence for some time now. Since it’s launch of its Silk Road project in 2013, China has invested heavily in the region around the Black Sea. The increasing influence the country has here has given the rising countries in the South Caucasus an opportunity to modernize infrastructure and further develop their economy.

I’ve linked a map here that lists the different investments that the Chinese has provided to the countries of Georgia and Azerbaijan, in sectors ranging from transportation and energy to tourism and banking.

You can see that China is working to increase their presence here and establish themselves further as a transcontinental trading power. The largest investor as of March of last year was Hualing Group, who has invested hundreds of millions of dollars developing real estate, logistics infrastrucutre, and transport facilies. Now, Hualing also owns a majority of MyWay Airlines, a Georgian startup with two Boeing 737 jets.

Chinese-Georgian Free Trade Agreement

In 2017, Beijing and Georgia’s capital of Tbilisi signed the Free Trade Agreement in order to reduce trade barriers between the two countries. This was shortly after Georgia entered the EU and marks China’s aims to connect Europe and Asia through the Belt and Road Initiative.

This agreement has gradually let to Georgian goods leaving the EU market and ending up in China. For example, Georgian wine exports to China increased by 43% in 2016. This makes China the largest importer of Georgian wine.

After the establishment of this agreement, Georgia has also pitched itself as a trade and transport hub. A stop in Tbilisi on the Belt and Road would half the time it takes to transport goods from China to Turkey.

Debt Trap?

The development of the Belt and Road Initiative has resulted in China supporting infrastructure projects in developing countries that align their geostrategy interests. This is done through huge loans to their governments. Although not necessarily a bad thing, the debt leaves developing countries vulnerable to Chinese influence.

There is always reason to question foreign investments. The Belt and Road is serving China but that doesn’t mean there is no opportunity for benefits in the Caucasus. But to simply take all of these loans for projects that China suggests and offers wouldn’t be smart. These governments also need to be transparent with their citizens of their debt obligations.

Tristan Kenderdine, Research Director at Future Risk mentions that, “Caucasus economies need to be aware that their economic power grows immensely by being able to negotiate together… perhaps a Silk Road trade association comprising [Central Asian and Caucausus countries] could provide the institutional basis for a stronger, and unified Central Asian and Caucasus response to China’s Belt and Road trade agenda” .

To conclude, China has been working to establish influence in this region, which is so important to connect European trade with Asia, for quite a few years now. Investments are largely in transport, with the development of the Belt and Road Initiative, energy, and real estate. Coming years will tell us if the Chinese government and private companies will reap rewards from the billions they’ve invested in the up and coming region.

Credits:

Chellaney, Brahma. “China’s Debt-Trap Diplomacy.” Project Syndicate, 23 Jan. 2017, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-one-belt-one-road-loans-debt-by-brahma-chellaney-2017-01?barrier=accesspaylog.

Lambert, Michael. “China Takes it All in the Black Sea Region.” New Eastern Europe, 19 February 2019. http://neweasterneurope.eu/2019/02/19/china-takes-it-all-in-the-black-sea-region/.

“Towards a Central Asia and Caucasus Trade Bloc for Belt and Road.” Home, http://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13539-towards-a-central-asia-and-caucasus-trade-bloc-for-belt-and-road.html.

“Why China Is Swooping on Georgia’s Airline Industry.” The Economist, The Economist Newspaper, 15 Mar. 2018, http://www.economist.com/gulliver/2018/03/15/why-china-is-swooping-on-georgias-airline-industry.

Caucausia and the surrounding area are riddled with violence and political conflict. There are a few places especially where groups of people are fleeing to and fleeing from.

History of Refugees in the Region

A century ago, a refugee emergency came out of the Caucasus region, following the Armenian Genocide (also known as Armenian Holocaust).

From 1914 to 1917, thousands of Armenian refugees crossed from Turkey, mostly women since the men had been slaughtered. By August 1915, more than two hundred thousand refugees fled from Turkey and were accepted into the cities of Yerevan, Elizavetpol, Kars, and Tiflis.

Asya Darbinyan, a doctor in Holocaust and Genocide Studies, spoke about this at the Diocesan Center in January. Shed mentioned the famous Armenian poet Hovhannes Toumanyan, who wrote this after assisting thousands of Armenians fleeing north into the present day country of Georgia:

“In that hell called Turkish Armenia,” he wrote, “three armies exist. The first is the one in combat. The second is the army of the abandoned women and children, the sick, the famished, the naked, the refugees which is the largest army. And third is the army of activists and helpers which is the smallest and weakest.”

Armenian villagers took the refugees in and started using their resources to take care of those destitute.

The war was more “urgent military interest, rather than an anti-Armenian policy”, says historian Peter Holquist. Another, Halit Akarca, stated that the Russian policies that followed the genocide during the war was “humanitarian occupation”, with political motivations.

Syrian Refugees Find Safety in Ancestral Home of Armenia

Currently, thousands fleeing from Syria’s civil war have found a home in Armenia, many in the capital of Yerevan.

Thousands of Syrians have found a home in Armenia since 2011. Today, with five refugees for every 1,000 people, the small country of Armenia is actually the third largest refugee host country in Europe per capita.

The nation welcomed so many displaced Syrians, partly because once Syria welcomed them, during the Armenia genocide I talked about in the passage above. Many Syrian-Armenians backed President of Syria, Bashar al-Assad for fear that religious differences would make them a target.

Dorian Geiger did a story about Vahe Hovhannesian, a 31-year-old jeweller living in Terevan after fleeing Syria’s civil war. He spoke of his fear leaving his apartment everyday. To get to work, he “knew there was a sniper a [he ran] so that he could not target [him]. Every day”.

Any refugees who can prove their Armenian lineage are granted citizenship and employment rights. This increase of Syrian-Americans might be most noticeable in the service industry, as restaurants serving Syrian food have popped up in the city.

Yerevan’s World of Gold market, which employs hundreds of Syrian-Armenian jewelers such as Vahe Hovhannesian. Photo by Dorian Geiger.

For Hovhannesian, he believes that “jewelry is the profession of Armenians”. This gives him a sense of belonging in a place where hundreds, if not thousands, of Syrian-Armenians make a living in the jewelry industry.

The acceptance of refugees in Armenia gives the roughly seventy thousand ethnic Armenians forced into exile from Syria’s civil war a familiar place to retreat to. But as Hovahannesian states, “Everyone I once knew is gone. Nothing will be the same.”

Credits:

“Armenia.” War and Genocide in Children’s Literature, warandgenocideinchlit.weebly.com/armenia.html.

Avakian, Florence. “Uncovering a Century-Old Armenian Refugee Crisis.” The Armenian Mirror-Spectator, 7 Feb. 2019, mirrorspectator.com/2019/02/07/uncovering-a-century-old-armenian-refugee-crisis/.

Geiger, Dorian. “The Syrian-Armenian ‘Refugee’ Jewellers of Yerevan.” GCC News | Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 6 Feb. 2019, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/syrian-armenian-refugee-jewellers-yerevan-190206080955913.html.

Secorun, Laura. “This Country Doesn’t Want Its Syrian Refugees to Leave.” Middle East Eye, 29 Oct. 2018, http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/country-doesnt-want-its-syrian-refugees-leave.

The area of the Caucasus, situated in between the Caspian and Black Seas, is a region defined by its political and geographical importance as the transition between Europe and Asia. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the two powers of the Russian Federation in the North and Turkey in the South have been trying to develop influence in this new region. One major reason is the presence of natural resources in the region, particularly in the field of energy.

An Area Abundant in Natural Resources

Both the North Caucasus, which is composed of seven districts of Russia, as shown in the map above, and the South Caucasus, composed of the three countries of Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, are rich in natural resources. Oil production in particular dominates the region’s economic development in the last decade.

The map above shows what gas pipelines were present and under construction in 2009.

The states of the Caucasus have been reinventing themselves, with shifts coming from their dramatic economic reform after the break up of the USSR. It gave them control of their own resources and the ability to capitalize on the industries the Soviet Union built exploiting the region’s oil and gas reserves,

North Caucasus

The North Caucasus is one of the oldest regions producing hydrocarbon in the former Soviet Union. Today, Russia places third in the world of oil production, after Saudi Arabia and the United States.

Chechnya

Some from the country of Chechnya have claimed that their republic has as much oil as Saudi Arabia, although most consider this a wild exaggeration. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov stated in an interview that the reason Chechnya has been able to take its “rightful place” as a major oil producing region, is a lack of investment in exploration and drilling.

During both the post-Soviet Chechen wars, most of their oil capacity was destroyed. Chechen analyst and historian Mairbeck Vatchagaev points out that Chechens were able to compensate for those losses by stealing hundreds of thousands of tons of oil in pipelines passing through the area. Moscow has rebuilt some of its oil infrastructure but has not given any power to Kadyrov.

Kadyrov has responded to this by encouraging allies in Moscow to build faculties in Chechnya.

Below is a quick history of the instability of the North Caucasus region.

Dagestan

Chechen’s neighbor, Dagestan, provides access to the Caspian Sea, where three pipelines pass through – the Baku-Novorossiysk oil pipeline, and the Mozdok-Kazimagomed and Makat-North Caucasus gas pipelines. In 1996, Dagestan began operating it’s first refinery, after the war in Chechnya and independence in Azerbaijan gave Dagestan access to imported products.

South Caucasus

The South Caucasus resides in a region of tremendous cultural and ethnic diversity, with hundreds of groups of peoples living in the mountainous terrain. There has been huge advances in the economic development of this area since gaining independence, and a huge part of their economies is the exportation of oil and natural gas.

BP Launches $28B Azerbaijan Gas Pipeline

Azerbaijan is the oldest know oil producer in the world and was named one of the top economic reformers by the World Bank in 2008 and 2012, with exports of as much as $12.9 billion in 2018. But their

The British oil producer BP has opened a gas pipeline running Azeri gas from Shah Deniz gas field all the way to Greece, making it one of the most complex gas projects in the world, with the first subsea infrastructure constructed in the Caspian Sea.

The Caucasus as a Modern Day Silk Road

As much as the Caucasus is important as a producer of oil and gas, the region’s location itself is a huge asset to whoever has influence and control in the region. Many have invested in the region and propose transforming the Caucasus into the modern day silk road, an “essential hub and connection region for trade in Europe, Asia, and the rest of the world.”

Georgia has been pushing to become an important link in China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR), as a Eurasian landbridge that is seen as essential in driving exports to the West. This would help Tbilisi lower it’s dependence on Russia as a partner and increase its influence as a region in the Caucasus.

Credits:

“Economy, oil, quality of life in North Caucasus”. North Caucasus Land. Apr. 2014. Web.

Huseynli, Naila. “Azerbaijan to Increase Oil Production by Year-end”. AzerNews. Oct. 2018. Web.

Kramer, Andrew. “Russia and 4 Other Nations Settle Decades-long Dispute Over Caspian Sea”. NY Times. Aug. 2018. Web.

“OUTLOOK 2019 Georgia”. BNE IntelliNews. Dec. 2018. Web.

Vanetik, Yurl. “Investing in the Caucasus: Overcoming Modern Myths”. International Policy Digest. Jan. 2019. Web.

I’ve mentioned migration streams in this region before, but I believe that it deserves a new post to really iterate how wonky the borders of Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan are. Due to conflicts, physical barriers, and economic growth, there are thousands of migrants moving in and out of each of these countries.

Throughout history, there has been constant movement from around the world through the Caucasus and it has resulted in a wonderfully diverse ethnic and linguistic variety in this region. Today, there is still much movement around the fragmented terrain.

Below is a general visual of the net migration rates of the four countries in the Caucasus.

Here is a link to another map that displays overall net migration for each country as well as the number of immigrants estimated to come from each country.

Searching for the data for this information is actually quite difficult, as there is little collaboration between the countries with regard to international migration patterns and addressing issues of immigration. Because there are so many factors pushing many of these countries to emigrate, it is almost impossible to find a single number.

First, from this map, you can see that there are many migrants that come to Russia from each country, especially Azerbaijan. This is to be expected as the country has a much larger population than any of the smaller countries and before 1991, included the three countries in the Soviet Union.

Factors that drive this immigration include military conflict, education, among others. Below is a table of reasons why some migrants go to Georgia.

Beyond just these numbers, there are border conflicts that are crucial in the area, namely the one on the border of Georgia and Russia in the Republic of South Ossetia.

Here, people live in uncertainty over whether they will wake up the next morning in Russian territory. I took a little video that I’ll insert below discussing the matter.

On the other side of Georgia, on the border it shares wit Azerbaijan, is an absolute minefield. Quite literally, a minefield lies just an hour from Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi. According to HALO trust, 13 have been killed from mines here since 1991.

The minefield was placed during the war over the territory of Nagorno – Karabakh with neighboring country Armenia. Azerbaijani forces thought that Armenia would use the land in Georgia, at the time a dysfunctional state, as a second war front. Although the war ended in 1994 and the Azerbaijani cleared their minefields, the last one remains in Georgia.

Below is a video that helps to show how serious this border conflict is.

Obviously, the borders around the Caucasus Mountain Range are fragmented, tensions are high, and political relationships are uneasy. Through this research, I’ve found that the countries of the South Caucasus are proud of their nationalities but some need to seek refuge in areas where their livelihood is not threatened.

2017 Migration Profile of Georgia, Secretariat of the State Commission on Migration Issues. Accessed 8 Feb. 2019. Web. http://migration.commission.ge/files/migration_profile_2017_eng__final_.pdf

Credits:

Bouvier, Leon F. “Shaping Georgia: The Effects of Immigration, 1970-2020” (1995). Center for Immigration Studies. Accessed 8 Feb. 2019. Web.

Joyce, Stephanie. “Along A Shifting Border, Georgia And Russia Maintain An Uneasy Peace”. (March 2017). NPR. Accessed 8 Feb. 2019. Web.

“Migration Policy Institute tabulation of data from the United Nations”. Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2017). United Nations database. Accessed 8 Feb. 2019. Web.

The history of economic development in the Caucasus Region is quite complex but has been defined largely by its transition from the old planning system of the Soviet Union and the exploitation of oil in the region since 2007. 

A little bit of background on the area – the three countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia were forced into the Soviet Union until its dissolution in 1991. The area also holds tremendous geopolitical importance; not only does it act as the connection between Asia and Europe, but there are natural resources such as oil.

I will be focusing on the country of Azerbaijan in this post because of its unique economy, led by their petroleum industry.

Azerbaijan is by far the wealthiest nation in the region but this is mostly stemmed from its oil and gas revenues. According to the OEC, 88.3% of their total exports, which exceeded $12.3 billion, is composed of crude petroleum, gas, and refined petroleum.

Because of this dependency, the country was hit hard with the international oil price shock of 2014. Overall GDP fell to roughly half of the peak, the local currency was devalued, and banks were closed.

This shock pushed the government into a more diversified economy, and launched initiatives to promote non-oil sectors and development outside the capital of Baku, where most of the wealth is concentrated.

It’s said that tourism and agriculture will foster the growth of the non-oil sector. It was released on January 31st that Germany has invested over $570 million in the country, claiming to go into the non-oil sector. 

According to Fitch Ratings, Russia’s interest in importing Azerbaijani agricultural products, the development of the tourism sector, and the opening of the SOCAR Carbamide plant will also stimulate non-oil exports of goods and services in the country this year.

Economist at FocusEconomics, Nihad Ahmed,mentions that “investments by the state oil fund SOFAZ, and more capital lured in from foreign investors, have helped propel non-oil GDP growth this year.”

As of January 25th 2019, Fitch affirmed Azerbaijan at ‘BB+’, with a stable outlook. They expect GDP growth of 3.5% in 2019, from 1.3% in 2018. The key factors driving this growth are a strong external balance sheet and low government debt, stemming from accumulated surpluses in times of high oil revenues, with a heavy dependence on hydrocarbons, an underdeveloped and opaque policy framework, and a weak banking sector and governance indicators.

Fitch outlined the main factors that could trigger positive economic development as: improvement in the macroeconomic policy framework, strengthening the country’s ability to address external shocks, a significant improvement in public and external balance sheet, and an improvement in governance and the business environment leading to progress in economic diversification underpinning growth prospects. 

They also outlined the main factors that could trigger negative rating action as: an oil price or other external shock, developments in the economic policy framework that undermine macroeconomic stability, and weakening growth performance and prospects. 

Below is a link of a map displaying the Gini indexes of the world, and although the map below does not include the Gini index of the country of Azerbaijan, it was 32 as of 2007.

https://arcg.is/1vGbyC

Authorities want to build a North-South corridor connecting Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran, opening up a route between Europe and South Asia. (Source) A new port, roads, and railways are being built now to create a regional transport and logistics hub. Overall, Azerbaijan is stabilizing and stepping up as a power other than Russia in this region and helping to define the geopolitical future of the Caucasus.

The Caucasus region had been under Russian Federation since the 19th century until the dissolution of the U.S.S.R. in 1991. This gave independence to the three countries in the South Caucasus region – Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. This post will focus on how these three countries, also known as Transcaucasia, have evolved since the end of the Cold War and the involvement of the various regions since.

The dissolution of the U.S.S.R. was a prime example of a major distribution of power. Large systematic changes came from dominating aspirations of international policy. Countries saw the opportunity to increase their power and influence after 15 states found independence.

Transcaucasia is in a very unique geopolitical setting and holds great geopolitical and geo-economic significance. Not only is it at the epicenter of tension and conflicts in Central Eurasia, but is is economically important because of the oil and gas reserves in the Caspian Sea. The Caucasus could potentially also represent a cultural bridge towards Central Asia, where a whole different systematic transition was taking place.

Political geographer Sir Halford Mackinder got it right with his quote, “Who controls Eastern Europe commands the Heartland; who controls the Heartland commands the World-Island (Eurasia and Africa), who controls the World-Island commands the World.”

Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia had to transition from Moscow’s rule to a new state indolence. At first, they were very weak states. The neighboring country of Turkey soon saw an “opportunity window” of sorts to expand their influence.

But Russia had really liked it’s long presence in the region and is not quite willing to give up it’s power there. This turned into an ideological battle, as both Moscow and Turkey’s capital of Ankara wanted to legitimize their presence.

Author of Power Politics, Martin Wight, provided a definition of a power vacuum – a region “occupied by one or more weaker powers between two or more stronger powers”. I’ve been applying this definition to the region, almost thinking about the three countries as a toy that Turkey and Russia are fighting over.

The legacy of the Soviet Union is gradually leaving the region, along with the influence. Even the use of the Russian language is declining, with two thirds of Azerbaijans reporting only a basic knowledge. The countries of the South Caucasus are starting to present themselves as no longer simply Russia’s neighbor but the the neighbor of Iran, Turkey, and the European Union.

The US has even begun building a deep port at Anaklia on Georgia’s Black Sea coast. We also send $100 million to Georgia in annual assistance to boost American business, foster democracy, and help the country’s military. China sees the region as a trading partner and transit route for the belt and road initiative.

Russia still has a military base in Armenia and, in defiance of internation law, keeps 7,000 troops in Ankhazia and South Ossetia. Both these places were simi-dettacted by conflict in 1992-3. The war of 2008 further displaced 15,000 Georgians from their homes in South Ossetia. In the last year, the Russians and South Ossetians have provocatively moved the fence in South Ossetia several times, by a few meters at a time.

Nino Giorgobiani, a spokeswoman at Georgia’s State Security Service, stated, “This illegal process has inflicted immediate and direct damage on every citizen of Georgia residing adjacent to the occupied territories”. Entire communities have been cut in two.

Cattle farmer Vasya speaks about how he is unable to visit a nearby graveyard where relatives are buried, pray at his local church, or drive farming tools to his land because it is now blocked by seized territory. Below I’ve linked a 4 minute video discussing the borderization, courtesy of NBC News, if you’d like to learn more.

Carnegie hosted a two-day conference in 2001 to examine what they had learned from twenty years of independence and state-building the three countries. This brought together non-governmental experts, acedemics, journalists, and civil society activists to discuss the violation of human rights, economic reform, and the media, as well as the role of Western Institutions in promoting democratization in the reign.

Both Georgia and Armenia seek to consolidate democratic gains and overcome poverty. Georgia, in 2003, and Armenia, last year, produced popular uprising (the Rose and Velvet Revolution) in response to the entrenched politics and poor living standards. This sparked public demonstrations and political changes, putting reform leaders in power.

Armenia’s newly elected government, headed by Prime Minister Nickel Pashinyan, is committed to fighting corruption, enhancing transparency, and restoring faith in the government.

Georgia has been making progress towards democracy lately but last month, Salome Zourabichvili won the election, a former minsiter who ran as independent but really was the bearer of ruling Georgia Dream party and past leader Bidzine Ivanishvili. Historically they have shown an abuse of administrative resources, attacks on civil society organizations, and a lack of a level playing field.

A new US – Azerbaijani ambassador, Erle D. Litzenberger, was approved recently and confidence toward him remains high in political circles in Washington.

The Cold War had an interesting effect on the region of the Caucasus. The affects have largely been around how the countries have dealt with independence from the Soviet Union and how other countries, neighboring and abroad, have interacted with the parties.

Credits:

http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/11/29/south-caucasus-20-years-after-independence-event-3448

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/decade-after-war-putin-backed-borderization-costs-georgia-land-n892321

http://www.turan.az/ext/news/2019/1/free/Interview/en/78005.htm

https://www.academia.edu/32621970/THE_CAUCASUS_IN_THE_POST-COLD_WAR_ERA_FROM_THE_SOVIET_REPUBLICS_TO_A_CRUCIAL_BUFFER_ZONE

Migration to and from the Caucasus has a very complicated and unique history. Because the area is largely defined by mountain ranges that are difficult or impossible to pass, many groups of people have lived in isolation for decades. But there are still many streams of immigration and emigration from the three countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, as well as South Russia.

There are many reasons for these streams, but most focusing on political and economic stresses.

During the last half century, few events have changed the course of migration flows in the Caucasus region (and further) the way the dissolution of the Soviet Union did in 1991. Last half century, few events have changed the course of migration flows the way the dissolution of the Soviet Union did in 1991. Below is a map of the Soviet Union in 1920. As you can see, all of the Caucasus region is in their control.

For now, I’m going to focus on the three countries of South Caucasus, also known as Transcaucasia. These are outlined in the map above.

The South Caucasus is a region of pretty high instability with frozen conflict and constant geopolitical struggles. Each political decision influences migration streams – the volume, the character, and the direction.

Since the late 1990s, Armenia and Georgia have focused on developing their migration legislation, not only working around human rights in the context of mobility, but investing in policy. They’re learned through cooperation with external forces such as the EU, US, and Canada.

This cooperation has evolved after the Armenian and Georgian governments announced European integration as the economic and political goal of the countries. The main focuses are on border management issues, the fight against people smuggling and human trafficking, as well as on managing return and readmission.

The establishments of EU mobility partnerships as well as signing readmission and facilitation agreements have strengthened this cooperation.

In Armenia, the UN dDepartment of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) stated that 191,000 migrants live in Armenia, 6.5% of the total population.

This does not, although, take into account the nationality of the migrants. 98% of the people here are of Armenian nationality, proof that almost all migrants are Armenians who have lived outside of the country. Even the Armenian media does not provide reliable data on migration to Armenia – but enough data about migration from the country.

Up to 100,00 ethnic Armenians live in Syria, but since the start of the war there, many of them have sought refuge in Armenia. Non-Armenians that migrated here probably regret it. While the neighboring countries of Azerbaijan and Georgia have strengthened their economy each year, Armenia cannot seem to do so.

The economic crisis of the 90s here has been a major contributing factor of this shift, and around 1.2 million have left the country over the past 20 years. The situation really isn’t much different today. It’s a poor country with high unemployment rates. Agricultural, construction, and many other essential parts of the economy are in decline.

The country attracts multi-million dollar loans annually, contributing to a state debt that exceeds 6.4 billion, while the economy is not improving.

Georgia resides in a unique setting since international migration has been possibly only since the country obtained independence in 1991 (after the dissolution of the Soviet Union). The creation of these new international borders have generated new opportunities. Thus, there has been a huge shift in migration flows.

Emigration as a percentage of population increased from 13% in 1980 to 26% in 2000. This benefit the country as remittances followed, which grew more than 500% between 2004 and 2014.

Georgia took action to leverage these benefits for development opportunities. Their strategy has been to base decisions on empirical knowledge. In 2017, the OECD Development Pathways published a study titled ‘Interrelations between Public Policies, Migration and Development in Georgia’, which examined how labor market, agricultural, education, and investment and financial services are affected by dimensions of migration.

Georgian created the State Commission on Migration issues in 2010, to integrate migration more into the country’s development strategy.

The study also analyses how policies in these sectors influence migration outcomes, such as the decision to migrate, the use of remittances, and the success of return migration. Adequate data, however, is an issue ensuring that policy responses are coherent and well-informed.

Emigration can relieve underemployment, provide an incentive for skills, and boost women’s social and economic autonomy in the country of origin. Remittances can help build financial and human capital as well.

Return migration is a largely unexploited resource. With the right incentives, return migrants can invest capital in start-ups and elf employment, and have the ability to transfer skills and knowledge acquired abroad. In Georgia, evidence shows that return migrants are more likely to own a business and spend on agricultural assets.

Azerbaijan’s migration status is an exception to the general rule of the South Caucasus, as they are party to several international instruments but has not prioritized migration for a long time and has ben developing its own approach, which is codified in the migration code Diaspora.

The country began to experience movement of people on the eve of the collapse of the Soviet Union, like other countries in this region, but largely due to territorial conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh with neighboring country of Armenia.

The political chaos and economic collapse after the breakup of the USSR caused serious problems surrounding the statistical records of migration processes, which mainly arose from the State Statistical Committee (Goskomstat). Problems arose largely because many other government departments besides Goskomstat were working on the issues related to population migration statistics.

Only in recents years has this changed, especially with the creation of the State Migration Service in 2007. This mandated function to merge state control over migration processes, including statistical reports. But still more than 80% comes from the Goskomstat.

According to results analysis by the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) method, it was identified that people prefer to move to other countries due to high unemployment rates. The results of this study also show that population growth and high mortality rates increases the emigration level. These results tells me that Azerbaijan should focus on these aspects to control the international migration problem.

It’s important that I also address the issues of migration in the North Caucasus, also known as Ciscaucasia. The area is occupied by Russia and the migrant population has undergone fundamental changed. The populations from Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic states have shrunk, while inflows from Central Asia and Transcaucasia have grown – from 15% of all immigrants in the 1990s to almost 40% from 2011-2015.

This shift reflects a transition of temporary labor migrants into permanent immigrants as well as mortality among elderly immigrants from Ukraine and Belarus. Violent relations have also pushed this migration, such as the armed conflict in Chechnya, which has lasted since December of 1994 and is an act of rebellion towards the Russian Federation.

In June 2012, the President of Russia approved the State Migration Policy Concept, which set policy until 2025, and aims to make immigration policy more balanced. It develops legislation focused on various long-term and temporary migration flows.

In addition, international agreements – both bilateral and collective, have been put in place and apply to areas of migration, travel and visa issues, legal status, labor migration, citizenship concerns, readmission, and more.

Most of the concept’s goals have not been achieved. There are still no immigration programs with terms for different categories of migrants. The bulk of migrant workers come to Russia under different terms – for example, health-care workers and low-skilled seasonal workers must fulfill the same rules to work.

Today, Russia stands at a crossroads. They will need to make decisions in two key areas – how migration should be regulated, and how many migrants Russia needs.

The geopolitical setting of the North and South Caucasus is stressed by several economic and political struggles that have lead to many flows of migration in and out of the four countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and South Russia.

Credits:

http://prokarelia.net/fi/kuvat/soviet_i.jpg

https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/1/132/pdf

http://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/29917/CARIM-East_SouthCaucasus_web.pdf?sequence=1

https://www.azernews.az/aggression/124359.html

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/9789264272217-en.pdf?expires=1547918800&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=0F2FD3A1620EDA5EBCA374387EE50EBD